Thursday, May 20, 2010

It’s all about ROI...

...return on investment - and it doesn't look like Meg Whitman is getting it.

Steve Poizner: stealing Meg Whitman's spotlight...

According to a story that broke in The Wall Street Journal last night (Pacific Time), “Meg Whitman appears to have lost much of her wide lead in the race to be the Republican contender in California's November gubernatorial election. Two months ago, Ms. Whitman looked to be cruising toward the Republican nomination. Polls showed the former eBay Inc. chief executive leading her main opponent, state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner, by 50 percentage points.”

But, oh, how times (and polling numbers) have changed.

The WSJ story continues: “With three weeks to go before the June 8 primary, Mr. Poizner is pulling off an unexpected rally. A survey to be released Thursday shows Ms. Whitman's advantage dwindling to single digits, with 38% of respondents saying they would vote for her, and 29% for Mr. Poizner. (The widely trusted poll, by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, follows similar results in other recent surveys that suggest a sharply tightened race. A May 10 SurveyUSA poll showed Ms. Whitman leading Mr. Poizner 39% to 37%.”

This is bad news for Megeven if she manages to beat Poizner.

The opponents grip and grin - for now...

With less than a month left in the race, the former eBay leader – despite pouring more than $68 million of her own money (she’s expressed a willingness to go all-in with a total of $150 million of her own moolah) – has lost her momentum. Just a few months ago, the Whitman juggernaut looked like it would not only run over Poizner – and Brown – but the American political process as well. And while her early money bought her high poll numbers (aka: name recognition), the issues, Poizner’s sniping and her lackluster political stands/record makes her a less-attractive candidate.

Gov. Moonbeam, Pt. 3?

And while Poizner is advancing, he shouldn’t necessarily start picking out drapes for the governor’s mansion (and neither should Meg). According to The San Francisco Chronicle, “If the election were held today, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown, who has spent no money on ads and held his first official event this week, would beat each of the GOP hopefuls in head-to-head matchups, the poll found. Brown, the state attorney general and former two-term governor, leads Whitman 42 to 37 percent and Poizner 45 to 32 percent. Brown faces no significant opposition in the Democratic primary election.”

It’s looking, more and more like Brown might not have any significant opposition from the Republican side of the aisle, either...

Speaking of the Whitman-Poizner/Brown race(s): Tonight on The John Batchelor Show, I'll join John, The Daily Beast's Tunku Varadarajan, and The San Francisco Chronicle's Joe Garafoli to discuss the surprising poll numbers Poizner is posting against Whitman in the California governor’s GOP race.


John Batchelor...

You can listen to the show at KSFO-AM 560 San Francisco,WTTK-FM 96.9 Boston, WABC-AM 77 NY, WMAL-AM 630 Washington, D.C., XM/Sirius Satellite Radio (ch. 158) and on more than two dozen other stations (check local listings for details). If you’re not in one of the broadcast areas, you can tune-in via any of those outlets’ websites.

See you on the radio...

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