Who will help the president solve the Gulf oil spill crisis?

Why, experts, of course!

Crisis (mis)management...

"Rough waters are truer tests of leadership. In calm water every ship has a good captain." — Swedish proverb

Since the horrific explosion, fire, collapse and massive leak at the site of British Petroleum's Deepwater Horizon well on April 20, the "it can't get any worse" situation has been getting worse - by the minute.

The oil continues to seep, spew and drift with the currents. What was once a Louisiana problem has now moved far enough east to become a Florida problem, and the fear is that the spread could loop around the southern end of the state and be transported to the north along the Eastern Seaboard.

While BP and the federal government struggle to contain and control the leaks (there are at least three at the site), the American public continues to lose confidence in the manner in which the White House is managing the crises at-hand. The president is even losing the confidence of some of his biggest Democratic supporters in Congress. (As some have suggested, this isn't the president's "Katrina," it's his Iran hostage crisis.)

The reason: President Barack Obama (and his team) have failed to own the situation. Instead, it's the other way around.

"Any one can hold the helm when the sea is calm." —Publilius Syrus.

A presidential briefing...

The basic rules of crisis management are pretty straight-forward: you've got to understand and manage the "issues" at hand. That means assessment and any immediate/urgently needed response(s); regular and reliable communication; short- and long-term vision/planning; action; and remediation. So far, the country's leadership - the president, the Interior Department, the Minerals Management Service, etc. - have done precious little in any of these areas. Of course, there is probably a great deal of work going on "behind the scenes, " but these efforts are not being communicated, which engenders more frustration, anger and mistrust (and undermines confidence all the way around).

Deepwater Horizon - April 20 (we're now nearing mid-June and things seem to be worsening)...

The early problems are now exacerbated with a number of revelations showing that the administration sat on its hands; made other, less-important matters a priority; and essentially hid the truth (or even misled the public). Some examples:

• From a report in Chron.com: "Three days after the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico, the Dutch government offered to help. It was willing to provide ships outfitted with oil-skimming booms, and it proposed a plan for building sand barriers to protect sensitive marshlands. The response from the Obama administration and BP, which are coordinating the cleanup: “The embassy got a nice letter from the administration that said, 'Thanks, but no thanks,' said Geert Visser, consul general for the Netherlands in Houston. Now, almost seven weeks later, as the oil spewing from the battered well spreads across the Gulf and soils pristine beaches and coastline, BP and our government have reconsidered."

"90 percent of a crisis response is communications" – Barbara Reynolds, Center for Disease Control

And still it leaks...

• The White House constantly attacks BP (and Big Oil) but the truth is “BP was a founding member of the U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), a lobby dedicated to passing a cap-and-trade bill. As the nation’s largest producer of natural gas, BP saw many ways to profit from climate legislation, notably by persuading Congress to provide subsidies to coal-fired power plants that switched to gas," according to a piece by Timothy Carney in the Washington Examiner. He continues: "Lobbying records also show BP lobbying on Obama’s stimulus bill and Bush’s Wall Street bailout. You can guess the oil giant wasn’t in league with the Cato Institute or Ron Paul on those. BP has more Democratic lobbyists than Republicans. It employs the Podesta Group, co-founded by John Podesta, Obama’s transition director and confidant. Other BP troops on K Street include Michael Berman, a former top aide to Vice President Walter Mondale; Steven Champlin, former executive director of the House Democratic Caucus; and Matthew LaRocco, who worked in Bill Clinton’s Interior Department and whose father was a Democratic congressman.”

"Leadership, like swimming, cannot be learned by reading about it."- Henry Mintzberg, McGill University School of Management, The Nature of Managerial Work, Harper & Row, 1973

President Barack Obama - down by the seaside...

• As noted in a new article in Rolling Stone magazine (via Hot Air), "The administration knew the spill could be far worse than its “best estimate” acknowledged. That same day, the president’s Flow Rate Technical Group – a team of scientists charged with establishing the gusher’s output – announced a new estimate of 12,000 to 25,000 barrels, based on calculations from video of the plume. In fact, according to interviews with team members and scientists familiar with its work, that figure represents the plume group’s minimum estimate. The upper range was not included in their report because scientists analyzing the flow were unable to reach a consensus on how bad it could be. “The upper bound from the plume group, if it had come out, is very high,” says Timothy Crone, a marine geophysicist at Columbia University who has consulted with the government’s team. “That’s why they had resistance internally. We’re talking 100,000 barrels a day.”

"The very essence of leadership is that you have to have a vision. It's got to be a vision you articulate clearly and forcefully on every occasion. You can't blow a weak trumpet." –Theodore Hesburgh, President, Nortre Dame University, Time, May 1987

BP chief Tony Hayward...

According to that same Rolling Stone article, the president didn't exactly get things moving on the crisis, despite the knowledge that the spill was a worst-case situation.

• "The president himself was occupied elsewhere. After returning from his vacation, Obama spent Monday, April 26th palling around with Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees, congratulating them on their World Series victory. He later took time to chat with the president of Honduras. When he put in a call to Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, it was to talk about tornadoes that had caused damage in that state, with only a brief mention of the oil spill. On Tuesday the 27th, Obama visited a wind-turbine plant in Iowa. Wednesday the 28th, he toured a biofuels refinery in Missouri and talked up financial reform in Quincy, Illinois. He didn’t mention the oil spill or the Gulf. That evening, administration officials received news that – to judge from their subsequent response – scared the shit out of them. 'The following is not public,' a confidential NOAA advisory stressed. 'Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked, resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. There is no official change in the volume released but the [Coast Guard] is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day. Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear.' After he was briefed that evening, Obama told his deputies to contact the Pentagon. The following day, Napolitano declared the BP disaster, which was now approaching the size of Puerto Rico, an 'Oil Spill of National Significance' – the designation required to draw on regional resources and to appoint an incident commander to coordinate a federal response. It had taken a full week after Deepwater Horizon exploded for the government to become fully engaged – a critical lapse that allowed the crisis to spiral out of control."

There you have it: what is supposed to pass for crisis management is actually mis-management at the highest levels. A clear vision has not been conveyed to the public; a true assessment has never truly been made and/or shared; priorities are askew; and politics - not problem-solving - are the order of the day.

God help the Gulf.

God help us all.

"The key to successful leadership today is influence, not authority." -

Kenneth Blanchard, University of Massachusetts, Schatz, Managing By Influence, (Prentice-Hall, 1986)

Still looking to take names almost two months later...

LATE ADD: This is not how you manage communications in a crisis...

The weekend wrap...

It's the end of another week chock full o' news. Here's a collection of items sure to be making news in the days and weeks to come:

First...radio reminder: I'll be on tonight at 6:15 p.m. (PacTime) with guest host Simon Constable on the John Batchelor Show. (Check local listings for details.)

It’s about time: President arrives at Gulf, rolls up his sleeves. (Yahoo!News/AP via Drudge Report) / Btw, he “knew from the beginning that oil leak would likely last months” (Hot Air)


Drawing a line in the sand?

[Nancy] Pelosi defends plan for creating jobs - House speaker touts the economic stimulus and derides its Republican critics at an appearance in San Francisco. (SF Chronicle) Hey, if this is how you "cure" unemployment, why not just give everyone a federally funded job and declare full employment?! In a related story, Hiring Recovery Sputters - The economy added 431,000 jobs in May, nearly all from census hiring. The private sector added only 41,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 9.7%. (Wall Street Journal) / Government Jobs Account for 95% of Job Increases (Bloomberg)


Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) explaining economics to the masses...

That whole “global warming will cause the seas to rise and cover islands” thing…yeah, not so much. (The Australian) / Shape-shifting islands defy sea-level rise (New Scientist)

Look out, Babs, here she comes: Fiorina surges ahead in GOP senate race - The Hewlett-Packard CEO has a 15-point lead over South Bay Rep. Tom Campbell, according to a Field Poll. (SF Chronicle) / Three days before primary, Fiorina dialing in on Boxer (LA Times)


Carly Fiorina (left) vs. U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer - here comes the fight...

Speaking of California/business as usual in Sacramento: State Assembly Speaker Karen Bass skips Capitol meetings but collects per diem payments. (LA Times) And people (don't) wonder why the Golden State is in the fix it's in...

Clap on, clap off…the Clapper: Obama to Name Retired General to Top Spy Post - The prospect of Lt. Gen. James R. Clapper Jr.’s nomination had drawn mixed reactions in Congress, where some argue the position should be for someone from outside the military world. (NY Times) / Lawmakers uneasy with DNI pick (Politico)


Lt. Gen. James R. (The) Clapper Jr...

Finally, putting all other news, snarkiness and such aside, we take time to recognize that today the world is diminished. Former UCLA basketball coach John Wooden died at 99 last night. "Basketball coach won 10 national championships - His accomplishments during his 27-year tenure with the Bruins made him one of the greatest coaches in sports history. He also created the 'Pyramid of Success' motivational program." (LA Times)


Coach John Wooden - and what mattered...

LA Dodgers' announcer Vin Scully broke into last night's broadcast to report on Coach Wooden’s passing (quoting Shakespeare): “His life was gentle; and the elements so mixed in him, that Nature might stand up, and say to all the world, THIS WAS A MAN!”

Stories to watch this week...

Within just a matter of hours, peace erupted into all-out violence this weekend...a major catastrophe worsened...politics as usual continued to be "politics unusual." Here are a few of the top stories to watch this week:

Israeli Raid Complicates U.S. Ties and Push for Peace - The deadly operation on a flotilla trying to break a blockade of Gaza introduced a new strain into already tense relations between the United States and Israel. (NY Times) / Israel defends flotilla raid amid global furor - Soldiers came under attack on an aid boat, officials say. Activists say any skirmish was self-defense. (LA Times)


A video still from the Israeli raid on the Gaza supply flotilla...

IAEA: Iran has over 2 tons enriched uranium -2 bombs' worth… Iran has amassed more than two tons of enriched uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday in a report that heightened Western concerns about the country preparing to produce a nuclear weapon. (Jerusalem Post)

BP Revised Permits Before Blast: A week before the Deepwater Horizon exploded, BP asked regulators to approve permits for three successive changes to its oil well over the course of 24 hours. (Wall Street Journal) / Best hope for Gulf two months away - Two relief wells being drilled diagonally into the gushing well offer the best chance of stopping the leak. Even then, the first tries probably won't work. (SF Chronicle)


The BP oil plumes now threatens vast, fragile underwater ecosystems...

Qaeda Aide Believed Dead: Al Qaeda's third in command, who played key roles in a recently foiled terrorist plot against the U.S. and the 2001 terrorist attacks, is believed to have been killed by a U.S. drone strike in Pakistan's tribal areas, potentially dealing a significant blow to the terrorist network. (Wall Street Journal)


Sheik Sa'id al-Masri, al Qaeda's chief operating officer, was "fired"...

“Spain next in line to collapse under weight of borrowing to pay for socialism.” (Yahoo! News via Fark.com)

In the California GOP governor’s race: Poizner, trailing, slams Whitman's 'obscene' spending (LA Times)

Ranking member on Judiciary considering options to probe Sestak offer details - Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) said the "factual errors" blamed by the White House "could be not getting their stories right." (The Hill)

Home Sales Set to Plummet in Markets Hit Hard by Foreclosures. (Bloomberg)

Poll: California voters favor Arizona law. (LA Times via Don Surber)

Cleaning up another mess...

Since the explosion, sinking and massive oil spill resulting from British Petroleum’s Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster more than a month ago, BP and the federal government have been struggling to find a solution to what could become the largest man made disaster – ever.

During the period since the horror first erupted in the Gulf of Mexico, we’ve seen the spill expand to beaches throughout the Gulf. We’ve seen BP downplay the severity – time and again. And we’ve watched the current administration present its biggest example yet that it is a presidency best characterized as “learning on the job.”


Interior Secretary Ken Salazar and President Barack Obama...

For BP’s part, it’s difficult to imagine that a company this big and this experienced did not plan (better) for a “worst-case scenario.” While they’ve continued to bumble on the PR front, their engineers (God love ‘em) have been trying everything and anything to find a “magic bullet.” The first containment dome failed…froze-up. The “big straw” – an effort to suck spewing oil up to nearby ships – didn’t make a dent. “Top kill,” pumping heavy mud into the wellhead in an effort to seal it, didn’t do it. The “junk shot” – trying to stuff debris (including golf balls and old tires) into the hole – worked about as good as you’d imagine something called a “junk shot” would.
While BP has at least been trying every trick in the book – and some that aren’t – the feds have been doing bupkis. (OK, the Coast Guard has been doing their usual stellar job but the administration’s response has been, um, lacking.)

My friend and colleague, Tunku Varadarajan (writing for The Daily Beast), however, feels that it’s wrong to blame Barack Obama: “Writers have been free with their superlatives of calamity, the most common being a likening of the spill to Hurricane Katrina: ‘Obama’s Katrina,’ many have written, glibly judgmental. And going one step further up the ladder of shrillness, Thomas Friedman, the Emperor of Glib, has been imperiously judgmental, calling the spill ‘Obama’s 9/11.’ The oil spill is none of the above. It is not even ‘Obama’s oil spill,’ if by saying so we mean to ascribe culpability to the president. He didn’t run the rigs, or oversee the plans, or grant the licenses to drill, or write the rules that govern the granting of those licenses. He was just president when the bloody thing happened (cf. Bush, 9/11). Not one iota of this sticky mess is Obama’s doing, by any rational calculus of causation.”




Obviously, I agree with Tunku, in that the explosion wasn’t the cause of Obama (or his team), but I also agree with the president’s recent declaration that he’s in charge and, echoing Harry S. Truman, “the buck stops” with him.

Whether it’s now or after the spill is quelled, one of the steps Obama can take to make things better is to cut loose his Interior Secretary, Ken Salazar. It would be unreasonable to expect the president to take blame for the Deepwater Horizon disaster, but during Salazar’s time at the helm of Interior (which has been otherwise unremarkable), the Minerals Management Service (MMS) – the federal agency overseeing offshore oil and natural-gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico – “has been cited again for ‘ethical lapses’ that included allowing rig inspectors and others to receive gifts from oil companies.”


The scapegoat, Elizabeth Birnbaum. Acknowledged as a "smart and hardworking administrator," Birnbaum took charge of the MMS two months after the department, part of the Department of the Interior (Ken Salazar, secretary), had already OK'd Deepwater Horizon's operations.

What’s more, Salazar (likely under orders from Rahm “The Godfather” Emanuel) – in an effort to produce a scalp for Congress – dumped one of his own, Elizabeth Birnbaum. According to The Washington Post, “Salazar, a politically savvy former senator from Colorado, responded that he had lost confidence in Elizabeth Birnbaum, the director of the Minerals Management Service, adding that he would soon be making changes. The next morning, Salazar and his deputy secretary David Hayes knocked on Birnbaum's office door and told her they planned to move her to another job; she resigned instead.”


The president checks out oil on a beach pre-cleaned by BP...

According to a report by Sharyl Attkison at CBSNews.com, “Birnbaum's departure was first reported as a "firing." Later, a "resignation." When asked for clarity, President Obama told the press corps today he had no idea.

CBS White House Correspondent Chip Reid: "Did she resign? Was she fired? Was she forced out? And if so, why?"

Obama: "I found out about her resignation today,so I don't know the circumstances in which this occurred."

The incredulous press corps followed up.

Reporter: "How is it that you didn't know about Ms. Birnbaum's resignation/firing before?"

Obama: "Well, you're assuming it was a firing. If it was a resignation, then she would have submitted a letter to Mr. Salazar this morning at a time when I had a whole bunch of other stuff going on... Come on, I don't know. I'm telling you I found out about it this morning. So I don't yet know the circumstances, and Ken Salazar has been in testimony on the Hill."

The Post article goes on to say that “Birnbaum's abrupt departure, coming just 10 months after she had taken the agency's helm, says more about the Obama administration's inability to improve MMS and the industry it regulates than Birnbaum herself. Facing a historically troubled agency, Salazar and his top deputies focused first on promoting easy-to-achieve changes…rather than conducting a broad agency overhaul.”


The mess gets worse...

Finally, when he had a chance to show some form of leadership, Salazar impressed no one as he toured affected areas of the Gulf coast with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and a group of U.S. senators, bragging to reporters that, "We will keep our boot on their [BP’s] neck until the job gets done.” That’s some fine work there, Kenny.

Let’s remember, that for all of Salazar’s big boot pronouncements and subordinate axing, he’s long been a friend of Big Oil. A story in The Nation reminds us that, “Salazar certainly believes in offshore oil drilling, but whether he can be trusted to regulate it is another matter. One wouldn't know it from his recent public statements, but Ken Salazar has long been one of the strongest advocates of offshore oil drilling in Washington. In 2008, as a Democratic Senator from Colorado, he criticized the Bush-Cheney administration for not doing enough to promote offshore drilling. In 2006, Sen. Salazar was the architect of the Gulf of Mexico Economic Security Act, which opened eight million acres of the Gulf to drilling. In 2009, as Interior Secretary, Salazar oversaw his department's lease of 55 million acres of the Gulf for oil and gas drilling.”

The author (no Big Oil-loving conservative) finishes with this viewpoint: “If Obama truly wants to chart a new course in dealing with the BP disaster and accelerating America's transition to a clean energy future, he should start by requesting Ken Salazar's resignation.”

Yes, that’s another way Obama could begin cleaning up this mess.

Casting troubles on the water...

From Washington, D.C., to Wall Street...from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Mexico...the challenges are significant - and growing. Tonight's offering is but just a sample...

Top of the News

Oil Slick Threatens U.S. Gulf Coast / First traces of oil ooze into Gulf's delicate wetlands...


Earlier today - the oil slick approaches the Gulf Coast...

BP's containment problem is unprecedented...


As horrific as the disaster's beginnings were, what might happen over the next weeks or months could prove to be much, much worse...

The rest of the news...


California / the West

You’ve heard of “The Little Train That Could”…how about “The Big, Fat, Expensive, Never-Will-Be-Realized Boondoggle – aka: California High-Speed Rail”…? - Major high-speed bump - State railway plan in trouble after report questions funding of $42B tab, project's lax oversight...

Meg Whitman's lack of public service / Meg Whitman spotted with ... Democrats!

Carly Fiorina: Coming Around Again - Carly Fiorina weathered a very public firing, breast cancer and the loss of a stepdaughter, but can the former boss of Hewlett-Packard win next months California Republican primary? Plus: The long, strange trip of California politics...

California Loses Fight to End Prison Oversight...

California coming up on 39 million people...

Oakland mayor who promised to take 10% pay cut no longer taking pay cut on account of his owing the IRS $252,000...

The Economy / Wall Street

GDP disappointment jolts stocks; Dow off 158...

3.2% GDP growth signals modest, steady recovery - The first-quarter rise is less than the 5.6% increase at the end of 2009, but is a stark improvement over the 6.4% decline in same period last year...

Beware Of The Muni Bond Bubble: States And Cities Can Fail As Well...

U.S. / Politics

Judge Won't Subpoena Obama to Testify...

Obama administration considers challenges to Arizona immigration law...

Immigration law amended - Ariz. guv says changes should lay racial profiling concerns to rest...

Villaraigosa backs boycott of Arizona...

Boehner Says Republicans Could Win 100 Seats - House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) said House Republicans could win 100 or more seats in this fall's elections, The Hill reports. "Boehner said he believes there is no seat that the GOP cannot win during this election cycle, judging by Sen. Scott Brown's (R) improbable win in January's special election in Massachusetts." When pressed, Boehner said he believed the GOP could win as many as 100 House seats...

MICKEY KAUS: ” It’s getting highly annoying to hear Obama and Senate Democrats pretend that to have effective border control we have to take a package deal that includes amnesty. They’re worse than the cable company when it comes to package deals.”

CHRIS DODD TALKS TRANSPARENCY, DWELLS IN SECRECY...

China / Asia

China Remains Biggest U.S.-Debt Holder

China says Houston police beat, injured diplomat

Beijing limits home-buyers to one new apartment

International


Putin Calls for Russia-Ukraine Gas Merger...

GOP senators ask Clinton to deny Ahmadinejad entry to U.S. for U.N. event

IRAN TRYING TO STIR UP TERRORISM IN MOROCCO...

United Nations Names Iran to Commission on the Status of Women...

Defense / Terrorism-related

Two Charged With Trying to Aid Al Qaeda...

Gates opposes getting rid of gay ban until Pentagon study done...

UN Gives Prize in the Name of Equatorial Guinean Dictator - Equatorial Guinea's dictator Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, allegedly a cannibal and definitely a tyrant, has given the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) $3m to award a $300,000 grant to scientists in his name...

Health/tech/science/Environment

5 reasons Flash would've rocked the iPhoneHigh winds, tides hamper oil fight - Massive spill oozes into La.'s fragile wetlands - birds, dolphins, turtles, manatees in harm's way...


Hat tip (sources): Los Angeles Times, NY Times, LA Observed, SF Chronicle/SFGate, SF Examiner, The Hill, Legal Insurrection, KCBS, Forbes.com, the Wall Street Journal/Online WSJ, the Drudge Report, Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire, Gawker, Instapundit, Philly.com, BBC, PopSci.com, AP News/MyWay, Boing Boing, Breitbart.com, The Daily Beast, Comcast.net, Korea Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, California Watch, TIME, Rheilworldview.com, Telegraph UK, Big Journalism, Moonbattery.com, NASA